Boris Johnson is on course to win a small 28-seat majority in the U.K. general election, according to a major eve-of-election poll.
YouGov’s second seat prediction survey said the Tories are set to win 339 seats (up 22 on their total at the last election in 2017) with Labour dropping to 231 (down 31). This so-called MRP model accurately predicted a hung parliament in 2017.
However, the model also suggested the race has tightened considerably in the last two weeks. Its estimate of the Conservative lead has more than halved since November 27, when the first YouGov MRP poll predicted Johnson would win a 68-seat majority.
Both YouGov forecasts suggested the prime minister will have enough MPs to ratify the Brexit deal he struck with Brussels and ensure Britain will leave the EU on January 31.