Wolfram Lacher, a senior associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, warned of a “real risk” of partition in Libya. Interviewed by France 24 he said this could happen either through an escalation of the fighting or because a “frozen conflict” scenario would take hold.
In the interview, Lacher said that for the first time, there was a risk that the fighting in Libya could no longer be waged through proxies but would be done openly between foreign powers.
He said that both Egypt and Turkey were “playing a game of chicken” that could well end up in a direct confrontation between them, said Lacher, who is the author of a recent book entitled “Libya’s Fragmentation: Structure and Process in Violent Conflict”.
Lacher expressed pessimism about the revival of a UN-led negotiation process, noting that Turkey and Russia were angling for a deal between them to control Libya while Egypt, the UAE, the US and France were opposing such a scheme.
He also criticised France’s support for General Khalifa Haftar, stressing that he could not understand why Paris kept on backing him despite his shortcomings and his failure to seize the capital, Tripoli. He added that France’s stark denunciation of Turkey’s role in Libya was misguided.