Tuesday is a crunch day for Italy’s government crisis with Premier Giuseppe Conte addressing the Senate at 15:00 local before possibly resigning and officially opening the crisis.
He would then go to President Sergio Mattarella who becomes the arbiter of the next step, with several possible scenarios on the horizon.
- Mattarella would open consultations with all the political parties and try to see if there is a majority in favour of going to elections or if there is one in favour of forming another government.
- An early election is the preferred option of League leader Matteo Salvini, who called time on the League’s 14-month alliance with the 5-Star Movement (M5S) on August 8 and is riding high in the opinion polls.
- There is also a chance of the M5S forming an alternative government with the centre-left Democratic Party (PD), despite longstanding hostility and a range of policy differences.
- \There is even a chance of Salvini pulling back and reviving the alliance with the M5S, after a reshuffle, but that faces the opposition of M5S leader Luigi Di Maio who is angry at Salvini for pulling the plug on Italy’s first all-populist government.
- Conte may not decide to resign at all and instead wait for a possible no confidence vote from the League.